Showing posts with label malcolm Turnbull. Show all posts
Showing posts with label malcolm Turnbull. Show all posts

Thursday, 20 October 2011

RUDDBULLISM - TONIC OR TOXIC?

http://www.spectator.co.uk/australia/7329953/ah-those-were-the-days.thtml



‘Ruddbullism’ sounds like one of those infectious diseases such as botulism or toxoplasmosis that hints at much unpleasantness to come. First diagnosed by John Stone in these pages over eighteen months ago, the term describes an unhealthy merging of policy strains on climate change, work choices, boat people, the republic and other issues where supposed opponents Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull found common ground. ‘Ruddbullism’ has now re-surfaced in The Australian courtesy of Brit-journo Nick Bryant; not as a sickness but as a suggested panacea for the perceived problems that plague our politics.

Coined by Stone, the term is a piss-take of ‘Butskellism’, used to describe the philosophical meeting of minds between Conservative and Labor ‘foes’ Rab Butler and Hugh Gaitskell that paralyzed British politics for decades until being dismantled by Margaret Thatcher.

According to Bryant, who after several years as the BBC correspondent to Oz knows a thing or two about the place: "The message from successive polls is that Australians would… favour a return to ‘Ruddbullism.’ Indeed, they repeatedly show that Rudd is much more popular than (Julia Gillard) and that Turnbull has broader appeal than Tony Abbott."

This contrasts with how former Secretary to the Treasury and Queensland National Party senator originally saw it: “Our own political scene was firmly in the grip of ‘Ruddbullism’, (yet) it was already clear that the Coalition parties had little hope of regaining office in 2010 under Turnbull.”

Much like botulism, a bacterium that enters the body through wounds, ‘Ruddbullism’ can also be viewed as a virulent strain that gains access through self-inflicted wounds upon the body politic. Perversely, it was the desire by Rudd and Turnbull to work together and stitch up an emissions trading scheme that eventually saw the two of them both lose their leadership positions. Similarly, Rudd’s embrace of feel-good policies such as the apology to the “stolen” generation – which Turnbull was also strongly in favour of, going so far as to publicly criticise former leader John Howard over, maintaining that his former boss’s position on the apology "was an error clearly" – weren’t enough to save either of them from being turfed out by their own party-rooms. Both leaders lost their jobs not in spite of, but indirectly because of their support for ‘Ruddbullist’ principles. According to John Stone: "Malcolm Turnbull welcomed, literally within hours of its appearance, the Rudd government’s Fair Work Australia Bill, conceding to Labor ‘a mandate’ not merely to repeal John Howard’s Work Choices legislation, but also to turn back the workplace relations clock by 25 years. He… embraced with equal fervour Kevin Rudd’s emissions trading scheme proposal, threatening to sacrifice Australia’s economy on the altar of global warming religion."

Where Stone saw a toxic threat, Bryant sees a healthy tonic.

"Rudd and Turnbull seemed to be leaders primed for a national moment pregnant with so much regional and international possibility," Bryant declares. Clearly he is a fan of both. Which is not all that surprising. Call it the British disease, if you will; that voguish longing for a touchy-feely centrist position that gave the world the original ‘Butskellism’, the brief flowering of Tony Blair’s ‘Third Way’ and the current ‘Camcleggism’ which seeks to marry severe budget cuts with trendy soft left causes such as gay marriage, renewable energy and bucketloads of overseas aid.

Lost in the enthusiasm for such a ‘compromise’ scenario is the awkward fact that in Australia the punters won't vote for it. The closer both Rudd and Turnbull came to agreeing with each other, the faster they both plummeted in the opinion polls. It was only under Tony Abbott, who by fighting Labor on border protection and carbon taxes and drawing a clear distinction between the two parties where Turnbull had failed to, that the Liberals finally managed to tap into the thoughts and attitudes of Middle Australia and regain their current dominant position in the polls.

All the evidence indicates that the blue-collar "battler" constituency in the suburbs strongly support tough border protection and fret about higher costs of living, most notably energy prices. These voters have no time for Turnbull and will never support the green tinges of the ‘Ruddbullist’ agenda. Kevin Rudd’s initial success and triumph were largely due to his pretense that he was “John Howard-lite.” The more he distanced himself from that position, the faster he fell out of favour with “struggle street.” Turnbull, too, foolishly mimicked Rudd’s distancing of himself from the policies of Australia’s second-longest serving Prime Minister, much to his own detriment.

Turnbull’s tragedy, of course, is that he’s either in the wrong electorate or the wrong party. Take your pick. His constituents are the one group in Australia who yearn for ‘Ruddbullism.’ A Labor party ticket with both Rudd and Turnbull together would be an answer to the sweetest dreams of the Wentworth crowd.

It’s easy to see how the ‘Ruddbullist’ philosophy came about. In 2008-9, Kevin, confidently shedding his Howard-lite clothes, and Malcolm, eagerly donning the cloak of Liberal leadership under the mistaken belief that his own constituents expressed the desires of the larger electorate, found themselves dressed like a pair of slightly embarrassed identical twins. The majority of Australians suddenly woke up to the fact that the two leaders were prancing about in a manner utterly alien to them.

Although Rudd has now bounced back in the opinion polls, his popularity is probably as much due to the unfair manner in which he was dumped as to the policies he espoused. Call it the Short Poppy Syndrome. As is well known, we Aussies love an underdog. Where Red Dog endlessly roamed the outback looking for his deceased master, Rudd Dog now ceaselessly roams the globe, refusing to believe that his leadership is dead. And the audiences can’t help but love him.

According to the online Medical Encyclopedia, botulism can lead to hyper-sensitivity, double vision, nervous exhaustion, nausea and finally paralysis of the entire system. It can be fatal.

Much like ‘Ruddbullism’ really.

Sunday, 18 September 2011

KEVIN AND MALCOLM - TEA FOR TWO?

tiny.cc/dyq8d


Prince Charles famously fantasized about being reincarnated as one of Camilla Parker-Bowles' tampons. For my part, I wouldn't mind coming back as one of Kevin Rudd's tea-bags.

Last night on the ABC's Lateline, Tony Jones dangled before our eyes the tantalizing vision of Tea with Malcolm and Kevin. His guest, none other than former Liberal leader and current touchy-feely heart-throb Malcolm Turnbull, smiled with amused self-satisfaction when asked “is it true as reported that you and Kevin Rudd occasionally get together to talk about politics?” With a mischievous twinkle in his eye and a self-deprecating shrug Malcolm informed us somewhat primly that “Well we - not - you know, we've got together a couple of times and had a chat, had a cup of tea.”

A cup of tea? Somewhat taken aback, Tony failed to ask any of the follow-up killer questions such a response demanded and that he must surely now be kicking himself over. No wry "who poured?", no witty "did he bring the Iced Vovo's?" And even worse, the demon inquisitor of Q&A failed to ask the obvious glaring headline-begging scoop of the year: "So what on earth did you two talk about?"

Oh, to have been a fly on the wall! Or even better, a soggy tea-bag on the side of the saucer; for surely whatever Mal and Kev discussed of any import would have been done in hushed tones and barely audible whispers in between carefully measured sips of tea.

Enjoying their Earl Grey together were the two men who by all rights - at least in their minds - should currently be Her Majesty's Prime Minister and Her Majesty's Leader of the Opposition. The two men who have the most enviable opinion poll numbers by miles of any politicians in the country, state or federal. The two men who between them command the loyal affections of a vast swag of Australian voters. And the two men who are probably the most ruthlessly ambitious politicians of our era.

The two men who as we speak nonetheless wield virtually no political power whatsoever, sitting calmly having tea together. Uppermost in their minds, apart from the burning sense of injustice and impotent rage that fuels them both, would be the inescapable mathematics of minority government. In Australia, we are still only just coming to terms with what the Europeans have long taken for granted, and what the motley crew of independents instinctively took advantage of: hung parliaments are there to be exploited. No principle is so sacred that it can't be ditched or used as a bargaining chip. Power resides with he or she who is prepared to get off his or her arse and cross the floor.

Because Tony Jones so miserably failed in his duty to find out for us, I'm going to have to imagine how Canberra’s very own Tea Party conversation went.

Kevin: Strange, isn't it? How similar you and I are, mate. And how entwined our fates.

Malcolm: Indeed.

Kevin: Has it ever occurred to you, hypothetically of course, what you and I could achieve if we worked together, in terms of logistical political specificity?

Malcolm: Absolutely.

For several long, drawn out seconds all we hear are the gentle sound of spoons tinkling against porcelain.

Malcolm: In fact, dare I say it we damn well did work well together! We nearly had that whole CPRS thing done and dusted. In the bag.

Kevin: Indeed.

Slow slurping sounds.

Kevin: As I said, hypothetically speaking, off the cuff as it were, the question is this: were I to wrestle back the leadership, would you think about coming over? I could offer you whatever you wanted. Treasury? Foreign affairs? Climate change?

Malcolm: All three, perhaps?

They both laugh.

Kevin: The bottom line is this, to be fair dinkum about it. Would you and I make a formidable team? Yes, of course we would. And let's face it, there's no one else on my side of the fence I could trust! Haha.

Malcolm: Funny you should ask. Because I was pretty much thinking the same thing myself.

Kevin: Australia’s Dream Team.

Malcolm: Tony’s nightmare!

Alexander Downer and Graham Richardson have both already called on Julia Gillard to stand down. Kevin Rudd, it appears, is the only possible replacement if Labor is to avoid a NSW style implosion. He is the only one with the faintest hope of winning back Labor supporters, and of implementing the carbon tax with any credibility. With Malcolm by his side, it would be a walk in the park. Bob Ellis has pointed out Malcolm’s long-standing suitability for membership of the Labor Party, including his spell chairing the Republican movement. He remains extremely popular not only with certain disillusioned Liberals, but with disheartened Labor supporters, too. Having Malcolm on Kevin’s team would give them added economic clout, allow Labor to dispense with the tortuous relationship with the Independents, in particular Andrew Wilkie and his pokies’ ticking time bomb, and would turn Rudd’s possibility of winning in 2013 into an absolute certainty.

Could it be that Australia might soon see a major realignment of the political landscape? If only we could read the tea leaves.

Tuesday, 2 August 2011

JUMPING SHIPS



In the marketing world, people jump ship all the time. The CEO of a company, having for years demanded unconditional loyalty from his team, will suddenly join his firm’s most hated rival. Struggling brands will poach their competitor’s Creative Director in order to re-build themselves. Betrayal? Of course not. It’s called "doing business." And nobody bats an eyelid.
Is Malcolm Turnbull about to jump ship? Could he do business with Labor?
Last week’s Virginia Chadwick Memorial speech, where Malcolm passionately embraced Kevin Rudd's sentiments about climate change being "the greatest moral challenge of our time" is revealing. Taken by most as a piece of mischief designed to keep Tony Abbott on his toes, the timing and oddness of the speech suggest an ulterior motive.
Malcolm is coyly fluttering his eyelashes across the chamber at an increasingly jumpy Labor Party and saying "I'm over here if you want me, boys! Shall we dance?”
Minority governments play strange tricks on the mind. In Europe, individuals whom the public had always assumed loathe each other frequently hop into bed together. Nick Clegg enjoyed a naughty weekend’s flirtation with Gordon Brown before abruptly deciding to offer his virtue to David Cameron. From a business angle, it made more sense. Nick, a classic latte-sipping lefty, is now deputy PM of Thatcher's old party. Are Dave and Nick happy together? Apart from a few petty domestic squabbles, the romance is going gangbusters.
The climate change issue and its troublesome offspring the carbon tax are strangling the life out of Labor. Gillard's "damned if I do and damned if I don't" quandary was only ever going to be resolved if she could persuade people that the tax would genuinely tackle climate change. She failed. By panicking and throwing other issues into the mix (wealth redistribution, who-gets-what-compensation, renewables) the "sell" became confused; with voters being offered a mish-mash of reasons why they should buy her product. Like a show-bag thrust in your face crammed with junk you don't really want, the majority of punters are responding "not today, thanks."     
But "not today" doesn't mean "not ever." With the same polls that tell us Gillard and her tax are floundering also telling us that climate change remains an issue of popular concern, the opportunity is ripe for a credible and inspiring Labor leader to re-shape the issue. Someone not beholden to the Greens, someone with solid business acumen untarnished by the BER and pink batts fiascos, and someone who can attract votes from the “wet” Liberals who by nature are uncomfortable with Tony Abbott’s brutal skepticism.
Someone, for example, who could convincingly tie opposition to the carbon tax into Labor’s beloved class struggle. Like this: “There has been a very effective campaign against the science of climate change by those opposed to taking action to cut emissions – many because it is not in their own financial interests – and that this has played into the carbon tax debate.” Beautifully put, Malcolm. Labor hardheads would sell their grandmas to have such an efficient and eloquent communicator on their team.
Malcolm remains high in the opinion polls as preferred leader of the opposition. Polls are the gold-standard by which Labor judges success. Julia is bankrupt. Malcolm is loaded. Moreover, Malcolm's Labor credentials, as pointed out recently by the ever-perceptive Bob Ellis, are impeccable. Malcolm fought valiantly for the Republic, is as passionate a climate change believer as you will find this side of Newtown, and despite his staggering wealth boasts a strong working class pedigree. Labor, as Ellis makes clear, would have no problem taking him on board.
But would Malcolm want to? Funnily enough, it would probably be easier for him to hop into bed with Labor than to try and claw back the Liberal leadership. The more Malcolm shows of his own true colours, the more the right of the Liberal party rail against him; with the Menzies House website labeling his speech ''The return of treacherous Turnbull.” Not a lot of love there.
“Let me say straight up that the question of whether or to what extent human activity is causing global warming is not a matter of ideology… or of belief.  The matter is simply one of risk management,” he continued, cunningly conflating his own renowned business skills with advocacy for the carbon tax. This wasn’t a speech aimed at confused Liberals. This was a message to the soul and brain of Labor. A message that says loud and clear: “Got a carbon tax to sell, guys? I’m your man.”
If Malcolm were to jump ship, many problems would simultaneously be solved. First and foremost, the prime-ministership would be back within his grasp, which is, after all, his sole ambition. Deliciously, it would also put him in a position to savagely attack Tony Abbott, an opportunity he is clearly salivating for. And above all, it would allow Malcolm to sleep at night over the one issue that genuinely seems to trouble his conscience.
And for Labor? The opportunity to re-take the moral high ground on climate change, re-jig its emissions scheme, shrug the Green monkey off its back, consolidate the Independents (Rob Oakeshott was gushing over Malcolm's speech), give Kevin Rudd the finger, and put Julia back where she is best suited (running kindergartens). Oh, and it would also give them a pretty good crack at winning the next election.
Sounds like a sound business decision to me.